John Baeyens

The market consensus forecast for Brazil seems to assume business as usual. It fails to recognize important changes in the global environment. As the outlook for exports turns more challenging while imports keep growing on strong domestic demand, the trad

Brazilis better positioned than ever before to weather the global turmoil. But it is surely not immune. The main transmission channel is the balance of payments, which is set to weaken from last year’s extraordinary strength. We stick to our out-of-cons

But analysts say this plan could jeopardize Brazil’s fiscal position because it would have to buy BNDES bonds in U.S. dollars to finance business abroad. The government might also have to subsidize the loans to make them attractive to businesses. As if th